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Betting Both Sides of the MLB Run Line

Michael Pellegrini Cappers CTO

Baseball Handicapping
July 10, 2023
10 Min. Read

When it comes to sports betting, North American football and basketball are heavily driven by point spreads. Baseball and hockey, by comparison, don’t rely on point spreads nearly as much. They still exist in the form of the run line (in baseball) and the puck line (in hockey), but money line bets tend to be more common in these sports. We could get into why point spread betting is so popular in football and basketball, along with the type of advantage it gives to the sportsbooks, but we’ll save that for a future article.

For the purposes of this article, we will be looking at betting strategies for the MLB run line. One strategy we will explore is based on betting favorites and giving up the runs, while the other focuses on betting underdogs and getting the runs. After the strategies have been explained, we will talk about how the Cappers App automatically calculates these results for you in every MLB game, along with 16 other MLB betting systems, and how you can use those results to improve and speed up your MLB handicapping process.

Understanding the MLB Run Line

Before we get into these run-line betting systems, let’s make sure we have a baseline understanding of what the MLB run line is. As I eluded to in the introductory paragraph, the run line is baseball’s version of a point spread. It provides a way for oddsmakers and sports bettors to come closer to equalizing teams when placing wagers. Normally the value of the run line is 1.5 runs, but in some extreme cases, it can be 2.5 runs. For the remainder of this article, we will assume a run line value of 1.5 runs, but I wanted to mention the possibility of a run line of 2.5 just so it doesn’t catch you off guard.

The run line favorite will be giving up 1.5 runs in the game, meaning a run line bet on the favorite requires the team to win by 2 or more runs for the bet to be a winner. This would be written as {Team Name} -1.5. The run line underdog is written as {Team Name} +1.5. These teams can lose by one run and your bet will still be a winner.

The main difference between the baseball run line and a point spread in football or basketball is that in football and basketball, the point spread betting price is locked (usually at -110) and the value of the point spread changes over time. A point spread in either of those sports might open at 2.5, then move to 3, then 3.5, etc; but the price is always -110. The opposite is true for baseball; the run line is locked at 1.5 and the price changes over time. For example, the Dodgers' run line for a game might open at Dodgers -1.5 with a payout of +110, then that payout could move down to +100, then it could move again to -110, but the value of the run line would always be -1.5. The same concept applies to run-line underdogs.

My favorite thing about run-line betting is that I can bet on the stronger team and still get a positive payout from the sportsbook. It’s not uncommon to find a team who is favored at -110 on the money line getting a payout of +150 as a run line favorite. Obviously, the winning criteria go up by one run (because they already need to win by one run just to win the game, now they need to win by two runs), but if your research and calculations show that they are likely to cover this spread, the run line can prove to be very valuable.

Run Line Oddities

Here’s where the MLB run line differs drastically from all other sports. Even the NHL puck line doesn’t behave this way. Just because a team is favored on the money line doesn’t guarantee that they will also be the run-line favorite. I’ve seen countless examples where one MLB team is the money line favorite at -115 and their opponent is the underdog at -105, yet the team who is favored on the money line is actually getting runs on the run line rather than giving them up. I did a triple-take the first time I saw this and still thought it had to be a fluke, but it wasn’t.

This is just another one of those intricacies in baseball betting that you won’t find elsewhere, and it definitely threw a new challenge at me when programming the MLB system results for the Cappers App. Consequently, I had to add this MLB form input to account for these scenarios:

A screenshot of the Cappers MLB handicapping form with the run line favorite input circled

The label of the form field says “Game favorite is Run Line favorite?” The default value for this input is “True” because, in most cases, the game favorite on the money line is also going to be the favorite on the run line, but not always. We’ll talk more about the Cappers App in a bit but I wanted to call out this scenario because it’s so unique to MLB run line betting.

Handicapping Run Line Favorites

Now that we have a baseline understanding of the MLB run line, we can start talking about how to incorporate it into our handicapping process. First, let’s look at handicapping run-line favorites. As I’ve already mentioned, I love run-line favorites because they give me a chance to win a positive payout wager on the team that is already favored in the game. I try to avoid bets with negative payouts whenever possible, so this is right up my alley.

When I’m handicapping MLB run line favorites, I start by looking at the last five games for both teams. First, I calculate the average runs scored and average runs allowed per game for the favorite, then I do the same thing for their opponent. I subtract the underdog’s average runs per game in the last five games from the favorite’s average runs per game in the last five games and save this number. Then, I subtract the favorite’s average runs allowed for the last five games from the underdog’s average runs allowed in the last five games and save this number. Add these two numbers and you have a baseline run differential for the favorite.

As a formula, this would be written:
favRunLineDiff = (homeTeamAvgRunsScoredLast5Games - roadTeamAvgRunsScoredLast5Games) + (roadTeamAvgRunsAllowedLast5Games - homeTeamAvgRunsAllowedLast5Games)

Next, I look to see if these two teams have faced each other previously during the current season. If head-to-head data between these two teams is available, I calculate the average runs scored per game by the favorite and the underdog, then subtract the underdog’s value from the favorite’s value. This number gets added to the baseline run differential.

As a formula, this would be written:
favRunLineDiff += (currentSeasonH2H.HomeTeamAvgRunsPerGame - currentSeasonH2H.RoadTeamAvgRunsPerGame)

Finally, I look at the entire season, up to this point, for both teams. If the favorite is playing at home, then I look at their home stats and look at the underdog’s road stats. If the favorite is playing on the road, then I look at their road stats and look at the underdog’s home stats. For now, let’s assume the run line favorite is playing at home. I calculate the favorite’s average runs per game at home and the underdog’s average runs per game on the road, then subtract the underdog’s number from the home team’s number and save that value.

Next, I look at how many runs each team is allowing at home and on the road per game. Since we’re assuming that the run line favorite is playing at home, I would subtract the home team’s average runs allowed at home from the road team’s average runs allowed on the road and save that value. These last two values are then added to our baseline run differential.

As a formula, this would be written:
favRunLineDiff += (homeTeamHomeRecord.AvgRunsPerGame - roadTeamRoadRecord.AvgRunsPerGame) + (roadTeamRoadRecord.AvgRunsAllowedPerGame - homeTeamHomeRecord.AvgRunsAllowedPerGame)

After these formulas and calculations are complete, you will have calculated your own run line differential for the favorite and can compare this to the offered run line and payout price from the sportsbook. I can’t tell you exactly what your criteria should be, but generally speaking, if the run line you calculated for the favorite is greater than the run line being offered by the sportsbook, and you’re comfortable with the payout they are offering, then you should consider making a bet.

Handicapping Run Line Underdogs

Compared to the previous system for run line favorites, which was developed entirely by the Cappers engineering team, the next system, which is called the “Contrarian Run Line” came from an excellent MLB handicapping article located at https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/4-baseball-betting-systems-that-work/

This system supports small-market and unpopular teams on a losing streak who are facing much better opponents. You will need to determine which teams qualify as small-market and/or unpopular, then look for the ones on a losing streak. The best scenario comes when the two teams are not in the same division and the underdog’s losing streak is between one and three games. Losing streaks of more than three games result in less of an advantage, and you want to avoid division rivals because the teams are very familiar with each other.

This system doesn’t present itself very often because these criteria are hard to meet, but when it does, it has proven to be very profitable. If you’re able to find underdogs who are receiving less than 25% of the run line tickets, the winning percentage goes up even more. Ultimately, this system is all about finding value and it plays on the psychology of the betting public. The best teams in baseball are often overvalued because the betting public likes to back winners. Teams on a losing streak are usually undervalued because the market assumes they will continue losing based on recent performance. Combine that with the fact that these teams aren’t very popular because they come from smaller markets and you end up with excellent opportunities to find betting value.

MLB Handicapping with Cappers App

Both of these systems provide intelligent approaches to handicapping MLB games, but they both have one unfortunate common denominator: they’re time-consuming. It takes a lot of time and research to calculate results from either of these systems for a single game. Now multiply that time for every game being played in a day. If you don’t want to spend time doing all this research and calculating each of these formulas, you can simply subscribe to the Cappers App and we will do all the hard work for you. You will receive the results from both of these formulas, along with 15 other MLB betting systems, in milliseconds after submitting the game form. Don’t forget, all new subscribers receive a 14-day free trial with unlimited access to our entire handicapping platform.

Remember, there’s no single magic formula that guarantees positive results when betting on sports. The most successful sports gamblers I’ve seen are excellent at comparing various data points and system results, weighing them appropriately, and using this information to make an informed betting decision. Cappers isn’t a tout service that expects you to blindly follow them and make our picks. We are a service for people who take sports handicapping seriously and want to make informed decisions based on relevant data and system results. We believe in providing a valuable service at a fair price which will save our users’ time and help them make better decisions.

If you’d like to see a deep dive into each of the MLB betting systems we calculate for every game, please watch this video:

For a more complete breakdown of how to handicap MLB games using the Cappers App, please watch this video:

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